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Polls are tied! Could Obama really lose the election?

August 15th, 2008

My neighbor asked me: “The polls show that McCain is now tied with Obama – could Obama really lose this election?”

No. Obama cannot lose the election.

Why? Two reasons. First, I believe the polls overstate McCain support because of how they estimate likely voters. They are greatly undercounting the new voters that will vote for Obama and they are overcounting the demoralized republican turnout. (For example, new voter registration greatly favors democrats.) Second, even these flawed polls will turn around once ads like this start airing:

Yeah, Republicans will not likely be very enthusiastic this fall. I think Obama has an insurmountable 10 point lead in the popular vote that will result in a Reaganesque electoral victory.

GOBama!

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