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What to watch for on election day

November 3rd, 2008

Here is a snippet of what Nate Silver, author of FiveThirtyEight.com has to say about the election tomorrow:

7pm EST Virginia, for my money, is the most important state in this election. If John McCain loses it, his path to victory is exceptionally narrow—he would need to pull out an upset in Pennsylvania, while holding on to Florida and Ohio, and avoiding a sweep out West. Barack Obama has considerably more ways to win without Virginia, but a failure to close out the state would suggest at best a more circuitous route to victory. As Obama remains about five points ahead in most polls of Virginia, what we’re really looking for is a quick call on anything before 8 PM that would indicate that the map has indeed changed from 2004, and not in McCain’s favor.

Read the whole thing. It gives an hour by hour analysis of what to look for as the results come in.

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